About 14.66 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil production in 2025 was likely committed to servicing crude-backed loan facilities, based on estimates derived from disclosures in the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s 2024 financial statements and official production data.
An analysis by Newsmen shows that four major crude-secured arrangements — Project Gazelle, Project Yield, Project Leopard, and Eagle Export Funding — are backed by a combined 213,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
If this allocation remained unchanged throughout 2025, the total volume committed to debt servicing would amount to 77.75 million barrels for the year, calculated by multiplying 213,000 barrels per day by 365 days.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate that Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025.
The 77.75 million barrels tied to crude-for-loan arrangements therefore represent 14.66 per cent of total annual production. Using the 2025 average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel, the 77.75 million barrels translate to about $5.60bn.
Converted at the official exchange rate of N1,492 to the dollar, the crude potentially deployed to service the loans is valued at approximately N8.36tn. This implies that out of the estimated gross crude oil earnings for 2025, a sizeable portion of output by volume was effectively earmarked for debt servicing before revenues could fully accrue to government coffers.
The obligations span multiple forward-sale and project-financing arrangements expected to be serviced through substantial crude oil and gas deliveries. These commitments have become a central pillar of NNPC’s funding framework following years of fiscal strain, volatile production, and declining upstream investment.
Several of the facilities were used to refinance legacy debts, fund refinery rehabilitation, support cash flow, and meet government revenue obligations.
One of the major exposures is linked to the Eagle Export Funding arrangement. Although the 2024 financial statement notes that “at least 1.8 million barrels” must be delivered per cycle, earlier reporting by The PUNCH indicates that the facility comprises three separate loan tranches.
The first, a $935m loan secured in 2020 and backed by 30,000 barrels per day, was fully repaid by September 2023. A second tranche of $635m was also cleared within the same period. The only outstanding portion is the Project Eagle Export Funding Subsequent 2 Debt, a $900m facility obtained in 2023 and secured against 21,000 barrels per day.
Repayment was scheduled to commence in June 2024, with final maturity expected in 2028. As of December 2024, the outstanding balance stood at N1.1tn, making Eagle one of the company’s significant forward-sale exposures.
“The company had capital commitments of N1.1tn as at the year ended 31 December 2024 (31 December 2023: N1.2tn). This relates to the forward sale agreement with Eagle Export Funding Limited for the delivery of Crude Oil.
“Under the contract, Eagle Export Funding Limited will make an upfront payment to NEPL for crude in a Forward Sale Agreement. The payment received is required to be settled with the delivery of crude oil volumes, i.e., NEPL sells crude to Eagle Export Funding Limited based on a delivery schedule.
“Based on the agreement, at least 1,800,000 barrels of Crude oil must be nominated and scheduled by NEPL (and delivered at the relevant delivery terminal to Eagle Export Limited in every delivery period commencing on 28 August 2020,” the NNPC financial statement read.
Another significant obligation arises from the incremental gas-supply financing arrangement with Nigeria LNG Limited. Under the agreement, NLNG provided upfront funding of N772bn for gas supplies to be delivered over time.
By the end of 2024, gas worth N535bn had been drawn and N312bn recovered by NLNG, leaving N460bn yet to be supplied. A financing charge of N12bn also accrued during the period, bringing the total outstanding balance to N472bn.
The refinery rehabilitation programme accounts for some of the largest crude-secured debt commitments. Project Yield, the financing structure backing the Port Harcourt Refinery upgrade, had an outstanding drawdown of N1.4tn at the close of 2024.
The agreement requires NNPC to deliver refined-product-equivalent volumes of 67,000 barrels per day, with repayment scheduled to begin in June 2025 after a two-and-a-half-year moratorium.
“This is a 7-year N1.5tn PxF loan obtained in October 2022 for general corporate purposes with the ultimate use being the execution of the EPC Contract between PHRC and Tecnimont for the rehabilitation of Port Harcourt Refinery.