A new policy analysis has warned that Nigeria’s escalating banditry crisis is gradually weakening the country’s state structure, as insecurity fuels declining public trust and strengthens the influence of non-state armed groups.
The report, authored by Joshua Odey and Ndu Nwokolo of public policy research group, Nextier, and released on Monday, noted that what began as a localised security challenge has evolved into a nationwide threat.
“Banditry is evolving into a self-reinforcing cycle driven by state fragility, weakening public trust, and the growing influence of non-state armed groups,” it said.
It added that the crisis, which was initially concentrated in the North-West, has spread to parts of the North-Central and North-East, affecting states such as Niger, Benue, Plateau and Taraba.
Citing incidents to support its findings, the report referenced the mass abduction at St. Mary’s Catholic College in Niger State, which occurred despite prior intelligence warnings.
“The incident underscored failures in communication and coordination between authorities, further undermining public confidence,” it said.
The analysis also highlighted what it described as the growing “privatisation of security,” where communities increasingly resort to self-help measures, including direct negotiations with criminal groups.
“Over time, this has normalised violence and weakened the authority of the state in affected regions,” the report warned.
While acknowledging that military operations have at times dislodged bandits, the report said such gains are often temporary.
“The fluid nature of armed groups—operating within civilian populations—complicates operations and increases the risk of civilian casualties,” it noted, citing the accidental airstrike in Zamfara State in June 2025.
To address the crisis, the authors called for a shift from reactive military responses to a more comprehensive, human-centred approach.
“This includes prioritising civilian protection, improving coordination among security agencies, and investing in rural infrastructure and technology for early threat detection,” the report stated.
They also emphasised the need to tackle underlying socioeconomic drivers such as poverty and unemployment.
“Without addressing these root causes, any security gains will remain short-lived,” the report warned.
Concluding, the analysts stressed that the crisis goes beyond security concerns.
“The persistence of banditry is not just a security failure but a governance crisis,” the report said, urging authorities to rebuild public trust and restore state legitimacy to achieve lasting peace.